Trump Bump or Trump Bust?

I’m just not sure who to believe any more?  One day the papers report (yes, I still read old time print news) that that the U.S. economy is not meeting grow the expectations, and the next day I discover that more jobs have been created than expected.  The “devil may be in the details” here, since the key question seems to be “what kind of jobs?”  Recent growth  statistics may be the most telling.   Over the second quarter in the U.S. a predicted growth rate of 2 percent is a far cry from the 4 percent that the so-called president pledged.  Using Twitter, Trump will probably be the first person to dispute these numbers and predict even bigger growth rates in the future.

Please don’t accept the Trump tweets as factual or even as “alternative facts.”  I often think of Trump’s obsession with tweeting as a modern day equivalent of Nero fiddling while Rome burns.  Many expert economists note that so far the economy’s trajectory remains the same as it did under President Obama.  Furthermore, without a meaningful change in government policies – greater infrastructure investment, an overhaul of the corporate tax code, a new commitment to improve the skills of American workers – there is no reason to expect the domestic outlook to change.  “The safe bet is to expect more of the same.  Unless we do things to boost productivity, this is the economy that we are going to see.”

So far, we have not seen these meaningful changes.  Time to put down “Nero’s fiddle,” take away Trump’s Twitter account and make him do something Presidential.  I don’t think he can really help himself.

Ray Myers


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Can Robots Really Help to Make America Great Again?

I am dedicating this blog to Donald J. Trump (so-called President) in the remote hope they he might take a passing glance at what some experts say is actually happening with the automobile industry in this country.  Let’s first take a look at Trump’s version of how he will help the automobile industry and its workers (his alternative reality?).  He would like to reduce the miles per gallon requirements of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for American-made cars/trucks. Consequently, we will then burn more gas, and simultaneously increase toxic car emissions into our already polluted atmosphere.  Detroit can then build more cars/trucks that will be less expensive than those saddled with all those environmental protection safeguards.  Not to mention that automobile makers will be hiring more American workers and bring economic relief to depressed parts of the country.  NOT SO FAST!

Thought for today: Automakers are the biggest users of industrial robots, which have hurt jobs and wages in local economies.  Real-world data supports this more pessimistic future.  Researchers were surprised to see very little employment increases in other occupations to offset the job losses in manufacturing.  A recent study analyzed the effect of industrial robots in local labor markets in the United States.  Robots are to blame for up to 670,000 lost manufacturing jobs between 1990 and 2007, it concluded, and that number will rise because industrial robots are expected to quadruple. And it obviously appears that these hi-tech robots and their “offspring” will be keeping their jobs longer than their human counterparts.

So the challenges just seem to be piling up for the Donald.  I would suggest that he READ some fact-based reporting in a real newspaper (NY Times?).  And stop believing “fake news” and watching FOX TV.

Ray Myers

Indy Tech – Midwestern Manufacturing Hub Goes Digital

So it seems that the city of Indianapolis has some ideas of its own in terms of making that part of America “great again.”  Some young professionals see “digital” opportunity there in contrast to Trump’s plan to bring back those manufacturing “hub” cities (and jobs) of the last century.   And guess who used to be Governor there, Vice-President Mike Pence.  Not only is he in favor of bringing back the good old days, he also wants to bring back that “old time religion.”

Then Governor Pence ruffled the feathers of the tech industry back in 2015 when he signed the Religious Freedom Restoration Act which allowed businesses to cite religion as a reason to refuse to serve customers – a move that people say was aimed at the gay community.  To his critics that alleged such discriminatory intent, he has responded that he was simply trying to ensure religious freedom?  Unfortunately, this legislation has had a chilling effect in terms of the growth of Indiana’s economy across many business sectors.   Some technology entrepreneurs and engineers, however, still see opportunity there.  Many  see a chance to play a larger role there than they might have had in Silicon Valley.

A larger role, perhaps, but with less of a salary that she could have earned in Silicon Valley.  Many young professionals simply like living in a “prime Midwestern technology center.”

Ray Myers